Guardrail approvals can fail between check time and use
In a self-adaptive system a model-based guardrail can issue an approval that is correct at check time yet no longer valid by the time it is acted on. A preprint on arXiv dated 29 August measures that gap: across five reproducible environments, at a common shift of eight simulator steps, the all-candidate verdict-change rate runs from 5.3 per cent to 48.4 per cent. The authors propose a shield that estimates each approval's validity horizon from its safe-side margin and recent volatility, without an explicit model of the plant's dynamics. At the same shift, oracle-labelled approval expiry falls from a 3.4-24.7 per cent range to a 0-1.8 per cent range. An audit of four judge models finds use-time invalidity above zero in every approval stream. The work is a preprint that has not been peer reviewed.[1]
