October 2026
All columns and Brief analyses.
10 results
AMRO holds its 2026 ASEAN+3 growth forecast at 4.1 per cent as AI exports support the region
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office kept its 2026 regional growth forecast at 4.1 per cent and raised its 2027 projection by 0.1 percentage point to the same rate, pointing to AI-related exports and investment. Its October update also lifted South Korea’s 2026 forecast to 3.3 per cent from 3.1 per cent. AMRO listed renewed energy disruption, a persistent El Niño and a rapid repricing of AI assets among the risks that could weaken the outlook.
Arctic ice forecasts drew on history but struggled with exceptional loss
A peer-reviewed Arctic sea ice study newly published tested forecasts built from historical patterns rather than a detailed physical model. September hindcasts performed comparably with existing models, while the exceptional loss in 2012 exposed the shortage of suitable past analogues. The results offer a baseline for comparing more complex forecasting systems.
BitNest reduces memory by putting its draft inside shared weights
BitNest combines rapid drafting and answer verification in one weight representation, using a low-bit base without storing a separate copy of draft weights. In the researchers’ single preprint, a Jetson experiment fits longer context into memory. A robotic task nevertheless takes longer overall despite faster token decoding, showing that the reported outcomes depend on the workload and comparison baseline.
Blastocystis subtypes differ across 28 sequenced bowel-study samples
A single peer-reviewed case–control study in western Iran found different Blastocystis subtype patterns in people with and without irritable bowel syndrome. Only 28 of 80 positive samples yielded usable sequences, with 14 in each group. ST3 predominated in the sequenced syndrome group. The preliminary comparison describes that small subset and cannot establish that the organism or subtype underlies bowel symptoms.
Bosnia’s preliminary count puts three presidency candidates ahead
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s preliminary election count put Željka Cvijanović, Denis Bećirović and Darijana Filipović ahead for the three presidency seats. With counting still incomplete, Milorad Dodik claimed his party had retained power in Republika Srpska. The emerging results identify the leading candidates after voting disrupted by problems with new identification and ballot-scanning equipment.
Chimney heat recovery gains power when the cold side sheds heat faster
A single peer-reviewed study combines a small thermoelectric experiment with calculations for recovering chimney waste heat. Faster heat rejection on the cold side increased calculated electrical output. The bench measurement peaked at 354 milliwatts; larger chimney-section outputs remain estimates based on uniform conditions. The work separates a tested module from equipment operating at industrial scale.
CSL commits 355 million dollars and development funding to Alentis deal
CSL and Alentis Therapeutics agreed to develop and promote the investigational kidney and liver treatment lixudebart. CSL commits an initial 355 million dollars, funds development, and could pay up to 1.2 billion dollars more at commercial milestones. The partners have also arranged a future profit split. The agreement funds clinical work while the treatment remains investigational.
DeepSeek approaches US models on LiveBench, with a reported gap of 3 percent
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Lea puts the US–China model gap on LiveBench at about 3 percent, following DeepSeek V4.1 Flash’s September gains. The comparison gives DeepSeek 81.1 against Anthropic’s best score of 83.4. This single Bloomberg account concerns benchmark performance; only three of the top fifteen models were Chinese, and rankings can change.
Euro sinks to a 17-month low as worries over French debt and politics deepen
The euro fell to 1.1161 dollars in Monday’s Asian trading, its weakest level since May 2025, after four straight weekly declines. Investors are worried about France’s debt and political gridlock before next year’s election, and the previous week’s global bond sell-off had hit French government debt. The dollar index rose about 0.5 per cent even as bets on an October Fed rate rise faded, and most Asian currencies weakened against it.
FBI arrests woman accused of watching Taiwan president’s family
US investigators arrested Wanying Zhang at Los Angeles airport and charged her with acting as an unregistered foreign agent. They allege she collected images and vehicle information about Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s son and his family near Seattle for Chinese officials. A federal court appearance is planned; the accusations remain unproven.