US orders and Texas production rose from June to July. German expectations rose while current conditions declined. The three indicators show an industrial recovery that varies by country and measure.
In the US Census Bureau's June advance estimate, durable goods orders rose 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion after a 4.0 percent decline in May. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.6 percent and those excluding defence 0.3 percent. Computers and electronic products gained 3.1 percent to $31.1 billion. Nondefence capital goods orders also rose 1.2 percent. The figures are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for price changes.[1]
In the Dallas Fed's July survey, the Texas production index rose to 10.1 from 4.1 and the new orders index to 6.4 from 2.3. General business activity increased to 1.3, while the company outlook index gained 11.1 points to 13.4. The employment index, however, eased to 12.2 from 13.9. Both price indexes fell, but raw materials at 41.3 remained above finished goods at 25.6.[2]
Germany's ifo business climate index rose to 86.6 in July from 85.7, beating the 86.0 forecast. Expectations drove the improvement: that sub-index increased to 86.7 from 84.3, while the assessment of current conditions slipped to 86.5 from 87.0. US orders, Texas diffusion indexes and German companies' assessments do not measure the same thing. Taken together, however, they show that stronger orders and production are not being matched evenly by current conditions and employment.[1], [2], [3]
