In the June data Stats NZ put unemployment near an 11-year high at 5.6 per cent while Japanese real wages rose for a sixth month, placing two official readings on opposite tracks.
Economics & Markets··Morning
New Zealand's near 11-year unemployment high
In the June quarter Stats NZ said the unemployment rate rose to 5.6 per cent from a revised 5.4 per cent, the highest level in nearly 11 years and above most forecasts, including the Reserve Bank's May estimates. A total of 171,000 people were unemployed: 7,000 more than in the previous quarter and 13,000 more than a year earlier. The labour force grew by 21,000 while people in work rose by about 5,000, leaving 33,000 more employed than a year earlier. Underutilisation rose to a 12-year high of 13.8 per cent. Spokesperson Abby Johnston said about 8,000 more people faced long-term unemployment than in the June 2025 quarter; those jobless a year or more make up about 19 per cent of the total. Unemployment among 15-to-24-year-olds not in education or training rose to 13.8 per cent from 12.9 per cent. The broad wage measure grew 2 per cent against a 4.1 per cent rise in consumer prices; an alternative measure showed average hourly pay up 1.1 per cent. Economists and markets expect the official cash rate to rise to 2.75 per cent.[1]
Japan's sixth consecutive monthly real wage gain
In Japan, inflation-adjusted real wages grew 1.6 per cent year on year in June, matching May's revised 1.6 per cent gain and extending the run to six months. Nominal total cash earnings rose 3.4 per cent to around 531,700 yen a month, in line with the 3.4 per cent economists expected and faster than a revised 3.2 per cent in May. Base salaries rose 3.4 per cent year on year after a 3.0 per cent increase in May. Special payments rose 3.5 per cent in June after a revised 7.4 per cent gain in May. Overtime pay growth held at 2.8 per cent. A government projection put annual nominal wage growth at 3.1 per cent through fiscal 2027, and Bank of Japan separates regular-pay gains from one-off payments when judging demand-driven inflation. June's release is read through a sixth month of real-earnings improvement and firmer regular pay.[2]
Opposite labour readings in the same period
Taken together, the two official releases place labour conditions on different tracks over roughly the same reference window. On the Stats NZ side the centre is the unemployment rate, underutilisation, long-term joblessness and youth unemployment: employment was higher than a year earlier, yet the labour force grew faster and the number out of work rose. On pay, the broad wage measure's 2 per cent increase lagged a 4.1 per cent rise in consumer prices. In Japan the headline is inflation-adjusted real wages and cash-earnings composition: real wages have risen for six consecutive months, base salaries advanced 3.4 per cent, and special payments cooled. One side shows a wider shortfall of work; the other shows multi-month improvement in real purchasing power after inflation. Both reports also sit in policy context: New Zealand markets expect the cash rate to move to 2.75 per cent, while Bank of Japan analysis separates regular pay from one-off payments when judging demand-driven inflation. The combined picture shows two national data sets painting opposite directions in the same news cycle.[1], [2]
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