Peru and Serbia hold rates as Argentina’s inflation quickens
Peru and Serbia held rates as Argentina recorded faster monthly inflation, illustrating how central banks balance current price readings, forecasts and external risks across markedly different inflation settings.
Economics & Markets··Morning
Peru holds at 4.25 per cent with core still above headline
Peru’s central bank left the reference interest rate at 4.25 per cent under the August 2026 monetary programme and said it continues to watch the inflation outlook. Twelve-month inflation stood at 4.07 per cent in July, and twelve-month inflation expectations were reported at 3.01 per cent. Core inflation excluding food and energy ran at 4.57 per cent over those twelve months, above the headline reading. The decision is a hold: the bank keeps the policy lever steady while current prices, the core measure and near-term expectations still need to line up. For households and firms that price contracts against the reference rate, the August programme freezes that lever and shifts attention to the gap between headline and core. The programme’s framing keeps the outlook under review, so the hold remains data-dependent. July’s mix—expectations near three per cent, core still higher than headline—explains the choice of patience over an immediate move.[1]
Argentina’s monthly CPI accelerates to 2.1 per cent
Consumer prices in Argentina rose 2.1 per cent in July after 1.9 per cent in June, leaving the twelve-month increase at 33.8 per cent. Prices have already risen 19.3 per cent in the first seven months of the year, far above the low single-digit settings of many peer economies. Core inflation, which strips out seasonal and regulated items, rose 1.8 per cent; seasonal prices jumped 4.5 per cent and regulated prices 2.1 per cent. Recreation and culture led divisions with a 5.0 per cent rise driven by tourist packages, followed by restaurants and hotels at 2.8 per cent. The monthly step-up is visible beyond a single regulated tariff: leisure, travel packages and hospitality contributed alongside the broader basket. For wage setters and retailers, the faster July month-on-month reading keeps services and seasonal items in view even while the twelve-month rate remains the headline scoreboard. The release documents a price path still measured in the mid-thirties over twelve months—a different inflation setting from low-single-digit annual prints reported the same week elsewhere.[2]
Serbia holds at 5.75 per cent as annual inflation cools to 1.9 per cent
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia left the key policy rate at 5.75 per cent, with the deposit facility at 4.5 per cent and the lending facility at 7.0 per cent. Annual inflation fell to 1.9 per cent in July, a reading the board linked to favourable agricultural conditions that pushed food prices down. The board said base effects should take inflation back to around 4 per cent in September and expects inflation to stay within the 3 per cent target band, which allows a 1.5 percentage-point deviation, over the projection horizon. It pointed to Middle East tensions and oil prices as risks, while judging domestic pass-through manageable for now thanks to energy stocks and reduced excise duties. Beside Peru’s hold at 4.25 per cent and Argentina’s 2.1 per cent monthly step-up and 33.8 per cent twelve-month rate, the same week shows authorities holding or describing policy against sharply different price levels. Serbia holds inside a band around three per cent; Peru holds with core still above headline; Argentina’s release is a pure price print far from low-single-digit peers. The shared operational material is current readings, stated outlook language and named external risks.[3], [1], [2]
