Statistics Canada gasoline print tests Bank of Canada as Nigeria and Banco Central do Brasil diverge
Statistics Canada put July inflation at 3 per cent before the Bank of Canada's 2 September decision, Nigeria's slower annual rate reopened cut talk, and Banco Central do Brasil's June activity index fell 0.6 per cent.
Economics & Markets··Night
Canadian gasoline pushes July CPI to 3 per cent before the 2 September call
The consumer price index published by Statistics Canada on Monday rose 3 per cent year over year in July, after a 2.8 per cent gain in June. The seasonally adjusted monthly increase was 0.3 per cent. Gasoline is the main source of the acceleration: prices rose 25.7 per cent year over year, after 20.5 per cent in June. The agency tied the pressure on energy prices to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the partial closure of Red Sea shipping routes. Excluding gasoline, the index rose 2.2 per cent for a third consecutive month. Inflation for food bought from stores eased to 3.1 per cent from 3.9 per cent in June. Among the provinces, Nova Scotia had the highest rate at 5 per cent and Ontario the lowest at 2 per cent. The reading is the last on prices before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on September 2.[1]
Nigeria's slower headline rate reopens the cut debate
Nigeria's annual inflation eased to 15.43 per cent in July from 15.91 per cent in June, according to the consumer price index report published by the National Bureau of Statistics. A year earlier, in July 2025, the rate was 24.94 per cent. The annual rate fell, but the price level kept rising: the index went from 143 points in June to 145.3 in July, a 2.2 point increase during the month. Monthly inflation eased to 1.57 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June. Urban inflation stayed above the national rate at 16.12 per cent year on year, while the urban monthly rate fell to 1.90 per cent from 2.13 per cent. The 12-month average for urban inflation was 16.81 per cent, 13.93 points below the 30.74 per cent recorded in July 2025. The slowing annual rate has reopened the debate over an interest rate cut.[2]
Brazil's June activity slump adds pressure on Banco Central do Brasil
The IBC-Br economic activity index published by Banco Central do Brasil on Monday fell 0.6 per cent in June from May. Economists had expected a 0.53 per cent contraction. Industry and services drove the June decline: industrial activity fell 1.4 per cent in the month and services 0.5 per cent, while the tax component used in the index fell 1 per cent. Agriculture rose 1 per cent. Despite the monthly fall, the index closed the second quarter 0.2 per cent above the first three months of the year, after a 1.2 per cent rise in the first quarter. On the quarterly comparison industry gained 0.5 per cent and agriculture 0.3 per cent, while services slipped 0.1 per cent. In May the index had risen 0.1 per cent month on month. Over the 12 months to June, economic activity grew about 1.5 per cent. The slowdown is attributed in part to the lagged effects of restrictive monetary policy and to the fading of the stimulus that supported activity earlier in 2026.[3]
