Philippine inflation eases to 6.1 per cent for a fourth month, still above the BSP target
Philippine consumer prices rose 6.1 per cent in August, down from 6.2 per cent in July and the fourth straight month of easing, as food costs slowed to 4.6 per cent and electricity inflation fell to 14.4 per cent from 16.9 per cent. Thirteen economists surveyed had forecast the exact figure, and the reading stayed inside the central bank's projected range even as the year-to-date average held at 5.2 per cent.
Economics & Markets··Midday
A fourth month of easing
Philippine consumer prices rose 6.1 per cent in August from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said, down from 6.2 per cent in July and inside the 5.5–6.5 per cent range the central bank BSP had projected for the month. Metro Manila's rate slowed to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and areas outside the capital region eased to 6.6 per cent from 6.7 per cent, while food and non-alcoholic beverages nationally cooled to 4.6 per cent. The picture looked different for the poorest 30 per cent of income households: their index held at 8.2 per cent, unchanged from July, as their housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels line rose to 10.3 per cent from 10.1 per cent and their transport line rose to 15.3 per cent from 14.2 per cent. National Statistician Dennis Mapa said the rate remained high even after four straight months of easing.[1]
Where the reading came from: electricity and the poll
Independent reporting on the same Philippine Statistics Authority release added sharper detail behind the national number. Inquirer.net found that electricity inflation eased to 14.4 per cent from 16.9 per cent, a steeper drop than the broader housing and utilities line, while the year-to-date average held at 5.2 per cent even as the month-on-month reading kept falling. Thirteen economists surveyed by the newspaper the previous week had forecast the 6.1 per cent print correctly, and the outlet noted the figure marked the fourth straight month of deceleration since consumer prices peaked in April amid the Middle East conflict. The reading stayed well above the BSP's 3 per cent target even as it landed inside the bank's own projected range.[2]
Where the two figures diverge
Electricity's cooling to 14.4 per cent from 16.9 per cent, reported by Inquirer.net, pulled the broader housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels line down to 7.9 per cent from 8.2 per cent nationally. For the poorest 30 per cent of income households, the same broader line moved the opposite way, up to 10.3 per cent from 10.1 per cent, even as national food costs eased to 4.6 per cent against 8.0 per cent for that income group. The economists who correctly forecast the 6.1 per cent headline were tracking the national average both readings describe, not the distinct trajectory inside the bottom income bracket.[1], [2]
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