The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8 per cent on Friday, up from 4.64 per cent ten days earlier, while the 30-year yield touched its highest point since 2008. With public debt above 40 trillion dollars, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that oil and bond yields could retreat after the war ends.
The yield on 10-year US government debt reached 4.8 per cent on Friday, up from 4.64 per cent ten days earlier, and a second report also placed it at its highest level since 2023. The 30-year yield touched its highest level since 2008 in the middle of the week. Similar increases appeared across other major economies over the past fortnight. Higher government borrowing costs feed through to mortgages and company debt.[1], [2]
Total US government debt has passed 40 trillion dollars, while annual deficits are forecast near 6 per cent of GDP. Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing said investors had recalibrated their view of US public finances. In his account, the absence of a plan for the deficit distinguishes the US from other major economies, and the yield move cannot be reduced to one data release.[1]
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that crude could fall to 50 or even 40 dollars when the Iran conflict ends and that the market would become heavily oversupplied. In his forecast, bond yields would follow oil lower; this is the secretary's view rather than a measured finding. When the interview aired, Brent traded above 95 dollars and West Texas Intermediate near 91 dollars, both close to their highest levels since July.[2]
