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Analysis

Brent crude passes 100 dollars as Hormuz flow restrictions persist

Brent November contracts rose 2.7 per cent to 100.57 dollars a barrel while WTI reached about 95 dollars. ABC News reported that reciprocal strikes in the Gulf continued to restrict flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Energy Information Administration also expects the constraints to persist through year-end and raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast from 84 dollars to around 90 dollars.

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A large unmarked crude tanker moves through an open strait between arid mountain coasts, with two smaller vessels waiting behind at different angles.

Brent crosses the 100-dollar threshold

Brent November contracts traded 2.7 per cent higher at 100.57 dollars a barrel. The US benchmark WTI gained 2 per cent to about 95 dollars. ABC News reported the price move while strikes between US and Iranian forces continued in the Gulf and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained. Its report said the strait carries one-fifth of global crude supply. These figures describe futures contracts and market prices at the time of the report; they do not guarantee a future price path. EIA's September outlook put Brent's August average at 91 dollars a barrel and its second-half 2026 forecast at around 90 dollars.[1], [2]

Fuel costs reached US consumers

ABC News put the average US pump price for gasoline at 4.22 dollars a gallon, 41 per cent above its level when the war began. Diesel stood at a record 5.94 dollars a gallon. The same report cited US Central Command as saying five Iranian tankers were destroyed on 8 September and reported a Revolutionary Guard warning for tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini waters to evacuate. Those are developments attributed by ABC News to the named parties; this card does not verify their broader claims about the conflict. EIA's outlook projected 2026 average US prices of 3.84 dollars a gallon for gasoline and 5.07 dollars for diesel; these are annual forecasts, not prices on the report date.[1], [2]

EIA expects constraints through year-end

In its September outlook, the US Energy Information Administration said it expected traffic constraints through the Strait of Hormuz to persist through year-end. It raised its forecast for the second-half 2026 Brent spot price from 84 dollars to around 90 dollars a barrel; Brent averaged 91 dollars in August. Assuming production rises and inventories rebuild, it projected an average of 74 dollars in 2027. These are conditional agency forecasts and are not the same measure as the futures price of 100.57 dollars reported by ABC News.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceABC NewsBrent crude passes 100 dollars a barrel as US and Iranian forces trade strikes in the Gulf↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceU.S. Energy Information AdministrationUS Energy Information Administration lifts its Brent forecast to about 90 dollars for the second half of 2026↩1↩2↩3