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Analysis

Bank of Russia leaves the key rate at 14 per cent as underlying prices speed up

The Bank of Russia board left the key rate at 14 per cent on 11 September. It said current price pressures have increased significantly in recent months, with underlying price growth at 5 per cent to 6 per cent in annualised terms. Annual inflation stood at 6.3 per cent on 7 September. The baseline scenario keeps 2026 inflation at 6.0 per cent to 7.0 per cent and 2027 at 4.0 per cent.

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The yellow-stone Bank of Russia headquarters in early-autumn sunlight, with tall arched windows and a Russian flag on the roof; one pedestrian is seen from behind at the lower edge.

The key rate stays at 14 per cent

The Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 14 per cent on 11 September. The Moscow Times placed the same decision on Friday and wrote that the key interest rate was left at 14 per cent. The board said current price pressures have increased significantly in recent months. Annual inflation stood at 6.3 per cent on 7 September.[1], [2]

Underlying growth in the 5 per cent to 6 per cent range

The bank estimated underlying price growth at 5 per cent to 6 per cent in annualised terms. In July, seasonally adjusted current price growth reached 11.6 per cent in annualised terms against a second-quarter average of 5.3 per cent, and the comparable core measure rose from 4.6 per cent to 7.0 per cent. The bank attributed much of that shift to motor fuel, fruit and vegetables. The summary of the rate discussion follows on 23 September and the next meeting is on 23 October.[1]

Annual inflation at 6.3 per cent, 2026 range unchanged

Annual inflation stood at 6.3 per cent on 7 September. Under the Bank of Russia baseline scenario, given the policy stance, annual inflation comes in at 6.0 per cent to 7.0 per cent in 2026 and at 4.0 per cent in 2027. The Moscow Times also carried the 6.3 per cent annual reading on 7 September and the 6 per cent to 7 per cent range for 2026, and wrote that policymakers still expect price growth to fall toward the 4 per cent target in 2027.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceBank of RussiaBank of Russia keeps its key rate at 14 per cent as underlying inflation speeds up↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceThe Moscow TimesRussian Central Bank holds key rate at 14 per cent↩1↩2