OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth to 380,000 barrels a day
OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels a day, the fifth consecutive downward revision. It raised the 2027 forecast to 2.36 million barrels a day. Much of the difference between the two years comes from non-OECD economies, with a marked acceleration projected for China and India in 2027.
Economics & Markets··Morning
The 2026 outlook fell for a fifth time
OPEC's September oil market report cut its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth from 580,000 to 380,000 barrels a day. It was the producer group's fifth consecutive downward revision to this year's outlook. Total global consumption is expected to average 105.84 million barrels a day in 2026. The Economic Times, carrying Reuters reporting, said OPEC sees a smaller effect on consumption from the Iran war than forecasters such as the International Energy Agency.[1], [2]
The 2027 forecast moved the other way
The same report raised its forecast for 2027 global demand growth from 2.16 million to 2.36 million barrels a day. That pace would lift total consumption to 108.19 million barrels a day. OPEC projects that demand in OECD countries will grow by 430,000 barrels a day next year, while non-OECD economies contribute 1.92 million. Non-OECD demand growth is expected to be only 490,000 barrels a day in 2026, making that group the main source of the gap between the two years.[1], [2]
Assumptions for China and India
OPEC expects China's oil demand to grow by only 10,000 barrels a day in 2026, leaving consumption nearly flat at 16.90 million barrels a day. For 2027 it projects an increase of 380,000 barrels a day and total consumption of 17.28 million. In India, growth is forecast to accelerate from 60,000 barrels a day this year to 400,000 next year, taking consumption to 6.11 million. Demand for crude from OPEC members is also projected to rise from 42.2 million barrels a day in 2026 to 43.9 million in 2027.[1]
