UNCTAD forecasts slower global growth as trade routes shift
UNCTAD’s new Trade and Development Report projects global growth of 2.6 per cent this year, below last year’s 2.9 per cent. Asia is expected to provide 59 per cent of global growth, while Europe’s projected contribution has roughly halved since 2022. Trade between China and the United States has fallen, alongside expanding East Asian trade with both economies.
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Global growth is projected at 2.6 per cent
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, or UNCTAD, has published a new Trade and Development Report on the global economic outlook and the distribution of growth across regions.[1], [2]
UNCTAD projects worldwide growth of 2.6 per cent this year, compared with last year’s 2.9 per cent. Goods and services trade is expected to grow about 4 per cent at constant prices. Total trade reached a nominal value of 35 trillion dollars last year; that dollar amount and the constant-price growth forecast measure different aspects of trade.[1]
Asia’s projected growth contribution reaches 59 per cent
Asia is expected to contribute 59 per cent of global growth. UNCTAD’s country forecasts include growth of 7.3 per cent in India, 4.5 per cent in China and 5.2 per cent in Indonesia. The agency identifies artificial intelligence and semiconductor trade among major drivers of merchandise trade, while warning that the gains do not automatically spread to all economies.[1]
Europe is expected to provide 10.3 per cent of global growth this year, roughly half its share in 2022. That figure is the region’s contribution to worldwide growth.[2]
China–US trade shrinks as East Asian trade expands
Trade between China and the United States has fallen more than 20 per cent since 2024, according to UNCTAD. East Asia’s trade with both has expanded. The agency describes changing trade routes and production connections. It also identifies export controls, investment screening and supply-chain conditions as constraints on new entrants to strategic industries.[1]
