US retail sales reach 745 billion dollars in September
US retail and food-services sales rose 0.8 per cent in September to 745 billion dollars, following an upward revision to August’s gain. Sales were 6.3 per cent higher than a year earlier. The advance estimate measures spending in current dollars, so price changes contribute to the increase. Its sample-based totals remain subject to revision as more business responses arrive.
Economics & Markets··Night
US retail spending rises for September
US retail sales increased in September as the government released its latest advance estimate. The Census Bureau, the federal agency that compiles the monthly retail and food-services survey, published the figures on October 15. Its spending measure covers sales in current dollars, with adjustments for seasonal patterns, holidays and differences in trading days across the months being compared.[1], [2]
September sales were estimated at 745 billion dollars, up 0.8 per cent from August. The margin of sampling error around the monthly change was plus or minus 0.4 percentage point. Against September a year earlier, sales increased 6.3 per cent, with a margin of plus or minus 0.5 percentage point. These are separate monthly and annual comparisons of the same spending total.[1]
August’s sales gain is revised upward
The bureau revised August sales to 739.3 billion dollars. The increase from July to August was raised from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 per cent, with a revised sampling margin of plus or minus 0.1 percentage point. September’s monthly comparison consequently uses an updated August base, incorporating information received since the earlier advance estimate for that month was prepared.[1]
Across July through September, combined sales were 5.5 per cent above the corresponding three months of the previous year. That comparison carried a margin of plus or minus 0.5 percentage point. The three-month window pools spending over the quarter, while the September monthly estimate compares only two adjacent months. The bureau’s figures are not adjusted to remove changes in prices.[1]
An advance survey awaits more business responses
The advance estimate draws on approximately 4,800 firms selected from the larger monthly retail survey. Their sales are weighted to represent more than three million retail and food-services businesses. The bureau can revise the early results as the larger monthly survey and annual benchmarks become available. The published sampling intervals use a 90 per cent confidence level for the estimates.[1]
Nonresponse, incomplete coverage, coding mistakes and processing errors can also affect the survey. The bureau identifies these as nonsampling risks, which it does not directly measure. Alongside those survey limits, current-dollar reporting leaves price and quantity changes combined in the sales total. The 0.8 per cent increase therefore describes the value spent rather than an equal increase in the amount purchased.[1]
