South Korea’s finance minister sees growth reaching 3.4–3.6 per cent
South Korean Finance Minister Lee Hyung-il sees annual growth potentially reaching 3.4–3.6 per cent as exports and investment stay strong. His assessment exceeds the government’s earlier projection of about 3 per cent. The government is also considering more frequent forecast updates, while the central bank’s advance third-quarter growth estimate is scheduled for 27 October.
Economics & Markets··Evening
Lee sees room above the government projection
South Korean Finance Minister Lee Hyung-il said growth this year could reach the middle of the 3 per cent range. His assessment came at a press briefing on 16 October, with accounts published on 19 October. He linked the stronger outlook to exports and facilities investment.[1], [2]
Lee described growth of 3.4–3.6 per cent as possible, above the government’s earlier projection of around 3 per cent. He said semiconductor supply remained below demand and investment momentum could extend into next year. These were his conditional expectations; a revised official forecast table had not been issued.[1]
Quarterly growth provides the backdrop
The economy grew 1.8 per cent quarter on quarter in the first quarter and 0.6 per cent in the second. Second-quarter growth from a year earlier was 3.7 per cent. In August, the Bank of Korea, the country’s central bank, raised its annual growth projection to 3.3 per cent, while highlighting sensitivity to the chip cycle and geopolitical developments.[1]
More frequent forecast updates are under consideration
Lee also outlined consideration of a year-end baseline outlook followed by two updates during the next year. The existing schedule has an annual outlook and one midyear revision. He said a change could reduce reliance on the broad second-half policy package usually announced in June or July. The advance third-quarter growth estimate is scheduled for 27 October.[1]
