China’s third-quarter growth rises to 4.5 per cent as investment falls
China’s economy grew 4.5 per cent from a year earlier in the third quarter, up from 4.3 per cent in the second. Preliminary figures put nine-month growth at 4.6 per cent. Industrial output and services expanded, while fixed investment contracted sharply, with property development particularly weak. The release also reports retail sales and household income alongside those output figures.
Economics & Markets··Morning
Quarterly growth picks up in preliminary accounts
China’s economy grew 4.5 per cent from a year earlier in the third quarter, according to preliminary national accounts released on October 19. Growth had been 4.3 per cent in the second quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s official statistical agency, put growth over the first nine months at 4.6 per cent.[1], [2]
First-quarter annual growth was 5.0 per cent, and the third-quarter economy expanded 1.2 per cent from the preceding quarter. The nine-month economy was valued at 107,107.1 billion yuan at current prices. That current-price total measures the monetary size of output, whereas the reported real growth rates remove price effects. The release labels its national-account estimates preliminary.[1]
Industry and services expand as investment contracts
Value added at larger industrial enterprises rose 5.3 per cent over January–September. Manufacturing increased 5.7 per cent, with equipment manufacturing up 10.2 per cent and high-technology manufacturing up 14.3 per cent. Services value added grew 5.2 per cent over the same period. In September, industrial output increased 5.5 per cent annually and 0.61 per cent from the preceding month.[1]
Fixed investment excluding rural households fell 7.2 per cent over the first nine months, to 33,411.5 billion yuan. The decline was 4.2 per cent with property development excluded. Property development investment itself dropped 20.6 per cent. Private investment fell 10.4 per cent, or 6.7 per cent excluding property. These investment growth rates use comparable prior-year statistical coverage. The floor area of new commercial buildings sold fell 13.2 per cent and their sales value declined 13.9 per cent.[1]
Retail sales and household incomes also rise
September retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,243.3 billion yuan, up 1.1 per cent from a year earlier and 0.35 per cent from August. Consumer prices increased 0.9 per cent annually and 0.2 per cent monthly. Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 1.0 per cent.[1]
Per capita disposable income over the first nine months reached 34,230 yuan, rising 5.3 per cent in nominal terms and 4.4 per cent after price adjustments. September’s surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 per cent, down 0.1 percentage points from August. Caixin’s accessible account placed nine-month growth within the government’s annual target range of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent.[1], [2]
