French output slipped by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter after stagnating in the preceding three months. Household spending increased, but exports and fixed investment declined. Foreign trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points from growth, partly offset by inventory accumulation. The first national-accounts estimate also showed lower manufacturing and construction output.
Economics & Markets··Evening
Consumption rises as overall output slips
France ended the third quarter with real gross domestic product 0.1 per cent below the previous three months. The first estimate, released on 30 October by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, INSEE, followed an unchanged second-quarter result. Both seasonal patterns and differences in working days are removed from the volume figures. Household consumption rose by 0.4 per cent, twice the preceding quarter’s 0.2 per cent increase. Government consumption grew by 0.3 per cent.[1], [2]
Household transport-equipment purchases increased by 3.1 per cent, with electric vehicles providing particular support. Higher electricity expenditure accompanied a 1.2 per cent rise in energy consumption. Food purchases were unchanged. Across final domestic demand excluding inventories, the positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth was 0.1 percentage point.[1]
Exports reverse the trade contribution
Exports fell by 1.7 per cent while imports edged up by 0.1 per cent. Foreign trade consequently subtracted 0.6 percentage points from GDP growth, after adding 0.6 points in the second quarter. Transport-equipment exports dropped by 9.1 per cent and agricultural exports by 7.0 per cent. Service exports continued to increase, although their growth slowed from 1.0 per cent to 0.5 per cent.[1]
Inventory accumulation increased. Their contribution turned positive at 0.4 percentage points, following a negative contribution of 0.7 percentage points in the preceding quarter. Aerospace products were prominent in the accumulation after inventories had been reduced during the second quarter.[1]
Investment and manufacturing decline
Fixed investment contracted by 0.6 per cent, following a 0.5 per cent decline. Investment in manufactured goods fell by 1.9 per cent, including a 7.0 per cent drop in transport equipment. Capital-goods investment nevertheless increased by 0.8 per cent, supported by information-technology equipment. Manufacturing output fell by 1.4 per cent and construction by 0.4 per cent, whereas market services expanded by 0.3 per cent. The second-quarter GDP estimate remained unchanged after rounding, although its composition was revised. Some household disposable-income and corporate profit-share figures were not yet available at this initial stage.[1]
