US households kept their one-year inflation expectation at 3.9 per cent in October, with the three- and five-year measures also unchanged. The New York Fed survey nevertheless showed greater concern about rising unemployment and missed debt payments. Expected household income and spending growth both eased, while rent expectations increased. Responses came from a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads during October.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October household survey put median inflation expectations at 3.9 per cent over one year, 3.3 per cent over three years and 3 per cent over five years.[1], [2]
All three measures held steady. The survey collected responses between 1 and 31 October, using a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads who can participate for up to 12 months.[1]
Households assigned a 45.3 per cent average probability to unemployment rising over the next year, the highest since April 2020. Their perceived chance of losing their own job rose to 13.9 per cent. The perceived probability of finding work after a job loss also increased, to 46.5 per cent, its highest since November 2025. Expected earnings growth remained 2.6 per cent.[1]
The average perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment within three months increased to 13.8 per cent, the highest since December 2025. Expected household income growth eased to 3 per cent, and spending growth to 5.3 per cent. Rent increase expectations rose to 7.7 per cent, while food price expectations held at 5.5 per cent and expected gasoline price growth fell to 4.2 per cent.[1]
