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US October inflation exceeds forecasts as rate pressure persists

US consumer prices increased 0.4 per cent in October, exceeding forecasts while slowing from September. Core prices rose 0.3 per cent again, with shelter contributing to the broader increase. The Labor Department published no annual rate because comparable October 2025 data were missing. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller called for considering a larger December interest rate increase.

Economics & Markets··Morning
High-angle overhead view of a shopper and cashier handling everyday food and household staples at a brightly lit US supermarket checkout counter.

October prices rise faster than forecasts

US consumer prices rose 0.4 per cent between September and October, exceeding the 0.3 per cent increase forecast by economists. The Labor Department released the figures on November 10. The pace was slower than September’s 0.6 per cent increase, but the latest reading again placed consumer inflation at the center of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. The figures concern the change in prices over one month.[1], [2]

No annual inflation rate accompanied the October release. The government shutdown in 2025 had left the department without October consumer price data for that year, removing the corresponding comparison month. The missing base means the newly released monthly rise and a year-on-year inflation rate have different data requirements. The department provided the latest month’s price movement without publishing the annual comparison normally calculated against the same month a year earlier.[1]

Core inflation holds its monthly pace

Prices excluding food and energy increased 0.3 per cent in October. This core measure had risen at the same monthly pace for three successive months. Shelter costs also increased 0.3 per cent. Shelter contributed more than 30 per cent of the rise in the all-items consumer price index, making it a substantial component of the latest monthly increase alongside other household costs covered by the index.[1]

Energy prices increased 0.7 per cent, a slower monthly rise than September’s 5.2 per cent. The gasoline market also showed a change in direction by the release date. Figures from the American Automobile Association put the national average price below 4 dollars a gallon on November 10, the first time in nearly four months. That gasoline observation concerns the market price on the day, while the inflation figures cover October.[1]

December meeting follows an October hold

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, although two policymakers voted for an increase. Governor Christopher Waller had called for considering a half-percentage-point increase at the December 8–9 meeting in remarks at a London conference on November 10. Waller’s position forms part of the policy discussion preceding the next meeting. The October consumer price release now provides a realized inflation reading alongside that previously stated case for tighter policy.[1]

References

  1. News sourceCBS NewsU.S. consumer prices rise 0.4% in October↩1↩2↩3↩4↩5
  2. News sourceReal Estate NewsU.S. consumer prices rise 0.4% in October↩
Central banks and the rate cycleEnergy transition and climate

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