Türkiye’s central bank raised its year-end inflation projection from 28 per cent to 29.5 per cent while retaining its interim target at 24 per cent. Higher oil and food price assumptions accompanied the revision. The bank’s scenario rests on continued tight monetary policy and fiscal coordination, with weaker domestic demand assessed as supporting disinflation.
Türkiye’s central bank revised its expected year-end inflation upward, moving the forecast from 28 per cent to 29.5 per cent.[1], [2]
The current-year interim target remains 24 per cent. For next year, the bank projects 21 per cent inflation, followed by 13.5 per cent at the end of 2028 and 9 per cent at the end of 2029. The medium-term target stays at 5 per cent.[1]
The bank increased its average crude-oil assumption for the current year from 87.8 dollars to 97.2 dollars a barrel. Next year’s assumption rose from 76.4 dollars to 86.7 dollars. Expected food inflation at the current year-end increased from 28.5 per cent to 31.3 per cent, with the next-year assumption moving from 19 per cent to 24 per cent. Export-weighted global growth assumptions remained unchanged at 1.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively.[1]
Domestic demand weakened in the second quarter, and the bank assessed third-quarter indicators as consistent with that picture. It judged demand conditions supportive of falling inflation. Higher energy prices and persistent supply shocks lifted its projections. The scenario assumes continued tight monetary policy and coordination with fiscal policy. The bank identified a stronger domestic-demand slowdown as a downside risk and inflation expectations and pricing behaviour as channels for further supply-shock effects.[1]
