Three prices, one shock
Norges Bank raised the policy rate from 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent. Ida Wolden Bache said inflation has stayed above target for several years; the target is 2 per cent. Capacity utilisation is slightly below a normal level.[1]
The Riksbank left the policy rate at 1.75 per cent. It put the 2027 average at 2.3 per cent, against 1.9 per cent in the June forecast. The board still sees spare capacity.[2]
The Swiss National Bank left the SNB policy rate at 0 per cent. August inflation was 0.8 per cent, against 0.6 per cent in May. The conditional forecast is 0.7 per cent for 2026, 0.8 per cent for 2027 and 0.8 per cent for 2028.[3]
Spare capacity splits the price
A central bank sets the price of reserves and does not create the demand that absorbs the shock. Norges Bank sees inflation above target for several years while capacity is slightly below normal. The Riksbank still has spare capacity. The Swiss National Bank sees capacity below average and August inflation at 0.8 per cent. The split could also come from the exchange rate and the basket weights; the SNB also wrote down a weaker franc and oil products.[1], [2], [3]
The 21 September column argued that the fuel shock in Georgieva's warning was passing into policy rates and debt service. Thursday's three rates are three levels of that price.[4]
The banks' own conditions
The Riksbank assesses that the increases begin this year if the inflation and activity outlook is unchanged. That is the board's condition. The 2026 unemployment forecast is 8.6 per cent.[2]
Norges Bank is prepared to raise the rate again if the inflation outlook warrants it. The next decision is on 5 November. Inflation moving to 2 per cent in 2029, on the current path, is the bank's own forecast.[1]
The Swiss National Bank ties its conditional forecast to the assumption that the policy rate stays at 0 per cent. The discount above the threshold is 0.25 percentage points. Growth in 2026 is between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent.[3]