Two simulated runoff polls put Brazil's presidential contest within their margins of error: Quaest placed Flavio Bolsonaro at 42 per cent and Lula at 41 per cent, while BTG Pactual/Nexus placed Lula at 46 per cent and Bolsonaro at 45 per cent. With the first round due on October 4, the near tie makes the narrowing race a central uncertainty after Jair Bolsonaro was barred from office.
Two simulated runoff polls placed the gap between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro within their margins of error. Quaest put Flavio Bolsonaro at 42 per cent and Lula at 41 per cent, with a reported margin of error of 2 points. BTG Pactual/Nexus reversed the order, placing Lula at 46 per cent and Bolsonaro at 45 per cent. Different candidates led by one point, but neither poll established a statistical advantage.[1], [2]
Brazil holds its first round on October 4. The electoral court barred Jair Bolsonaro from office after finding that he had abused his power; he was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 loss to Lula. His son Flavio now carries the Bolsonaro name on the ballot. Lula is running as the incumbent for a fourth non-consecutive term.[1]
Quaest's first-round measure put Lula at 37 per cent and Flavio Bolsonaro at 33 per cent, also with a 2-point margin of error. Those first-round preferences are separate from the one-point gaps in the simulated runoff comparisons. An earlier Quaest runoff poll dated August 5 had Lula at 44 per cent and Bolsonaro at 39 per cent. The gap in the latest measure is smaller than that earlier 5-point spread.[1], [2]
