Danish intelligence calls a NATO invasion highly unlikely and no longer rules it out
Defence Intelligence Service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said the risk of a limited military attack on a NATO country bordering Russia is low but growing, called an invasion highly unlikely, and said he does not expect a conventional attack on Denmark. The Straits Times reported that the service published the assessment on Thursday and that a force build-up would take several months and would be hard to conceal. Berlingske reported the same chief saying Denmark can no longer rule an invasion out, and that this is new.
Geopolitics··Evening
Ahrenkiel calls an invasion highly unlikely
The Straits Times reported that Defence Intelligence Service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel called the risk of a limited military attack on a NATO country bordering Russia low but growing. He called an invasion highly unlikely and said he does not expect a conventional attack on Denmark. The service published the assessment on Thursday. Berlingske's headline and visible lede say the service can no longer rule out a Russian invasion of a NATO country, that this inability to rule it out is new, and that Ahrenkiel is the official who said so. The two papers quote the same chief on Thursday's assessment. One stresses how unlikely an invasion remains. The other stresses that ruling it out has stopped.[1], [2]
Hybrid attacks and a build-up that is hard to hide
The Straits Times said the assessment describes hybrid attacks that have turned toward stopping support from reaching Ukraine, including cyber attacks that could cripple critical societal functions. It said a limited military attack would be a desperate move by Russia. The same account says a force build-up would take several months of preparation and would be hard to conceal. Berlingske's visible account stays with the chief's new refusal to rule an invasion out and with Bruus's Cold War comparison. The months-long preparation claim is The Straits Times' reading of the published assessment.[1]
Bruus calls this the gravest moment since the Cold War
Berlingske reported Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus saying Denmark is in a more serious situation than at any point since the end of the Cold War, in connection with the publication of the service's new Russia assessment. The minister's line is the political frame around the intelligence chief's distinction between a highly unlikely invasion and a limited attack whose risk is low but growing. The Straits Times account stays with Ahrenkiel, the Thursday publication, the hybrid shift, and the judgment that a limited attack would be desperate and slow to prepare. The chief's unlikely-invasion line and the minister's Cold War comparison are the two public sentences attached to Thursday's assessment.[2], [1]
