Lula’s lead narrows in Brazil’s final CNT/MDA poll
Brazilian President Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 47.8 per cent to 42.1 per cent of projected valid votes in the final CNT/MDA survey before the first round. The gap has narrowed since the previous poll. The election is scheduled for October 4, with an October 25 runoff if no candidate wins more than half of valid votes.
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Lula’s first-round lead narrows
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Flávio Bolsonaro in the CNT/MDA opinion survey published on October 3, on the eve of the presidential election. Projected valid votes put Lula at 47.8 per cent and Bolsonaro at 42.1 per cent. That calculation excludes blank and void preferences and undecided respondents.[1], [2]
Across all responses, Lula has 43.1 per cent and Bolsonaro 38 per cent. The September 15 survey had put them at 40.5 per cent and 30.4 per cent respectively, showing how the gap between the two candidates has narrowed.[1]
The poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews
The survey’s methodology records 2,007 face-to-face interviews from September 30 to October 2, conducted in homes and public-flow locations. Its confidence level is 95 per cent. Results were weighted for education and household income, with regional and state sampling proportional to the electorate and municipality size also taken into account.[1]
A runoff is scheduled if nobody wins a majority
The first round is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate receives more than half of valid votes, the two frontrunners advance to an October 25 runoff. In the survey’s hypothetical second round, Lula has 47.3 per cent against Bolsonaro’s 43.1 per cent; the preceding survey measured 47.3 per cent against 40 per cent. Lula represents the Workers’ Party and Bolsonaro the Liberal Party.[1]
