UN leadership straw poll leaves leading candidates facing permanent-member opposition
The latest UN leadership straw poll left each of the three leading candidates facing opposition from two permanent Security Council members, according to leaked results. Rafael Grossi increased his support, while Rebeca Grynspan retained a narrow lead. Coloured ballots exposed the divisions between permanent and elected members as the search for António Guterres’s successor continued.
Geopolitics··Night
Coloured ballots reveal opposition to the leading candidates
The search for a successor to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres remained deadlocked after the secret straw poll on 16 October. According to results reported by La Nación and Folha de S.Paulo, each of the three leading candidates received discouragement votes from two permanent Security Council members. The latest round distinguished those members’ positions from the elected members’ votes by using different-coloured ballots. The results reached the press through leaks; they described an informal test of support rather than a formal recommendation vote.[1], [2]
Grossi gains support as Grynspan stays narrowly ahead
Rafael Grossi, the Argentine diplomat who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, received eight encouragements, six discouragements and one no-opinion vote. In the preceding round, his figures had been six, seven and two respectively. Former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan, who leads the UN trade and development agency, remained narrowly ahead with nine encouragements and five discouragements. Guyana’s UN representative Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett matched Grossi with eight encouragements and six discouragements. Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett each received encouragement from three permanent members, compared with two for Grossi.[1]
A Council recommendation still requires nine votes without a veto
The Council’s five permanent members are China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States. They used red ballots, while the ten elected members used white ones; individual countries’ votes remained anonymous. At the final stage, a candidate needs at least nine Council votes without a permanent-member veto before the name goes to the 193-member General Assembly. Guterres’s term ends on 31 December. US Ambassador Michael Waltz said the preference was to finish the selection before year-end. Other possible candidacies remained under discussion, with no agreed successor announced.[1]
There is no deadline for nominations, leaving open the possibility of a new candidate with permanent-member support already arranged. Opposition to an existing contender can also be withdrawn. Folha cited Kofi Annan’s election on 13 December 1996 after France withdrew its veto as a historical example of a late agreement in the selection process.[2]
