Eigen RadarGeopolitics
Analysis

Pentagon bans personnel from betting with nonpublic military information

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth barred department personnel from using nonpublic government information to place bets, including on Polymarket and Kalshi. The October 20 directive, made public on October 22, covers classified and unclassified information as well as indirect transactions. Hegseth cited risks to operational secrecy and professional judgment. Violations can bring disciplinary measures and, where appropriate, criminal action.

Geopolitics··Evening
Two people stand with their backs to the viewer facing the Pentagon.

The restriction covers classified and unclassified information

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth prohibited Defense Department personnel from using government information that has not been made public to place financial bets. His October 20 memorandum became public on October 22 and was addressed to senior Pentagon officials, combatant commanders and the leadership of defense agencies. The restriction covers traditional betting platforms as well as Polymarket and Kalshi, where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of events. It applies to both classified information and unclassified material that remains outside public knowledge.[1], [2]

Direct bets and transactions made indirectly through other people fall within the directive. Its scope includes service members, intelligence professionals and civilian department employees.[1]

Hegseth cites operational exposure and distorted judgment

Hegseth argued that hostile intelligence services could combine movements in betting markets with other information to anticipate US force movements, targets and operational timing. His warning presents the secretary’s assessment of an operational-security risk. He also said that a personal financial interest in a military outcome could affect professional decisions. Administrative and disciplinary measures are possible for violations, together with criminal action under military justice or federal law where appropriate.[1]

An earlier criminal case remains unresolved

The new directive follows the April charges against US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke over bets linked to the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Federal investigators alleged that Van Dyke used advance knowledge of the operation to make money on Polymarket. He pleaded not guilty in a New York federal court. The directive does not determine the outcome of that prosecution.[1]

References

  1. News sourceCBS NewsPentagon prohibits betting with nonpublic military information↩1↩2↩3↩4
  2. News sourceDefenseScoopHegseth bars military-information betting by Pentagon personnel↩