Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain tied in Brazil’s final CNT/MDA poll
Brazil’s final CNT/MDA poll before the presidential runoff leaves Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied. Bolsonaro has 46.3 per cent of total intentions and Lula 45 per cent, within the 2.2-point margin of error. The October 24 release follows fieldwork from October 21 to 23, with undecided voters and blank or invalid choices still present before the October 25 ballot.
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Final survey leaves the runoff within the margin of error
Brazil’s final survey by polling institute MDA, commissioned by the National Transport Confederation, leaves Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied before the October 25 presidential runoff. The results were released on October 24.[1], [2]
Bolsonaro receives 46.3 per cent of total voting intentions and Lula 45 per cent. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. Fieldwork ran from October 21 to 23, and the survey reports a confidence level of 95 per cent.[1]
Blank or invalid voting intentions represent 5.8 per cent of responses, while 2.9 per cent are undecided. Excluding those groups, Bolsonaro has 50.7 per cent of valid intentions and Lula 49.3 per cent. Brazil’s runoff result is decided on valid votes. These survey figures describe preferences before polling, rather than ballots counted in the election.[1]
Both candidates’ totals are below the previous survey
The preceding CNT/MDA survey put Bolsonaro at 46.8 per cent and Lula at 45.9 per cent of total intentions. The latest measurement therefore leaves both with lower totals, while the difference remains within the margin of error. In the October 4 first round, Bolsonaro received 47.03 per cent of valid votes and Lula 45.16 per cent, qualifying both for the runoff.[1]
