Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs fall short in Israel’s first exit poll
Israel’s first exit poll put the main opposition bloc narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies, with neither group reaching a parliamentary majority. Arab parties held a separate share of projected seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s rejection of cooperation with Arab parties and divisions among Netanyahu’s opponents complicate government formation while official results remain unconfirmed.
Geopolitics··Morning
First projection leaves neither bloc with a majority
Israel’s parliamentary election on October 27 showed no outright winner in the initial exit-poll picture. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot both fell short of a governing majority. The projections opened a period of uncertainty over who could form a coalition; official results had yet to be confirmed.[1], [2]
The first projection from Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 gave the opposition 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50 and Arab parties 18. Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 members; a coalition needs at least 61. The figures describe an exit poll rather than a certified allocation of seats.[1]
Opposition parties face barriers to a coalition
Eisenkot leads Yashar, the party at the centre of the opposition challenge. His potential partners include Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, Yair Golan’s left-wing Democrats and former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s party. Their common goal of replacing Netanyahu has not removed disagreements over who could join a government.[1]
Eisenkot has ruled out cooperation with Arab parties. The Joint List, an alliance representing Arab citizens of Israel, has in turn rejected joining a coalition that includes Yisrael Beiteinu. A previous coalition of Netanyahu’s opponents took office in 2021 and collapsed after about a year of internal disputes.[1]
First national vote since the October 7 attacks
The vote was Israel’s first national election since the October 7 attacks and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Supporters of Netanyahu praised his stance against Iran, while critics raised his failure to prevent the October 7 security disaster. Eisenkot interpreted the early projections as a rejection of the incumbent government and pledged to replace it. Israel held 5 national elections between 2019 and 2022.[1]
