Met Office puts the 2026 UK summer at 16.5 degrees Celsius and 130 times more likely
Met Office put the 2026 UK summer mean at 16.5 degrees Celsius, 0.40 above the prior record in a series from 1884. England, Wales and Northern Ireland each broke their summer means; Scotland had its joint sixth warmest. Rapid attribution found the season around 130 times more likely with human influenced greenhouse gases. Kew Gardens reached 38.1 degrees Celsius on 13 August. BBC Weather writes 30 degrees Celsius on 40 days against a previous 34, and the 2025 record fell by 0.34.
Science··Night
Met Office put the 2026 summer at 16.5 degrees Celsius
Met Office put the 2026 UK summer mean at 16.5 degrees Celsius, provisionally the warmest season in a series that starts in 1884 and 0.40 degrees Celsius above the record set the previous year. Met Office writes that England, Wales and Northern Ireland each broke their own summer means, while Scotland recorded its joint sixth warmest. BBC Weather repeats the same 16.5 degrees Celsius as a June to August mean that includes day and overnight temperatures. BBC Weather writes that the 2025 summer beat the then record by 0.34 degrees Celsius and that 2026 beat that new record by another 0.40 degrees Celsius.[1], [2]
Met Office attribution puts the season 130 times more likely, 1,148 years against 1 in 9
Met Office scientists comparing two large ensembles of simulations with and without human influence on greenhouse gas concentrations found the season around 130 times more likely with human-induced climate change. Mark McCarthy put the return period for such a summer in a climate without human emissions at 1,148 years, against roughly 1 in 9 years now; Met Office adds that return-period estimates for an event this extreme carry large uncertainty. BBC Weather ties the same 130-fold finding to the Met Office rapid attribution study. Amy Doherty said UK climate records are now breaking with increasing frequency.[1], [2]
Kew Gardens hit 38.1 degrees Celsius; BBC Weather counts 40 days against 34
Kew Gardens reached 38.1 degrees Celsius on 13 August. Met Office writes that 54 weather stations broke their all-time daily maximum, that the season was the UK's sixth sunniest at 621.9 hours, and that England had its driest July in the series. BBC Weather counts 38.1 degrees Celsius as provisionally the UK's fifth-hottest day, below the 40.3 degrees Celsius all-time high at Coningsby in July 2022. BBC Weather writes that 30 degrees Celsius or higher was recorded on 40 days, against a previous record of 34 days set in 1995. James Pope said summer 2026 would be about average for the UK in a world 2.5–3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.[1], [2]
