WMO's El Niño forecast now points to the most extreme event in four decades of monitoring
The World Meteorological Organization says forecasts now show a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Nino persists through February, the strongest certainty it has voiced in such an update. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters the event could exceed anything recorded in roughly four decades of monitoring. Central Pacific waters have already run 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, with WMO forecasting a peak anomaly near 3.6°C, above the 1997-98 and 2015-16 peaks, by the end of 2026.
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WMO says record-level El Nino certainty now stands at nearly 100 percent
The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that its forecasts now show a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, the strongest certainty the agency has voiced in an El Nino update. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva that if the current trajectory continues, the event may turn out stronger than anything recorded since the agency began monitoring roughly four decades ago. Central Pacific sea-surface temperatures ran 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average between late July and mid-August, and the agency forecasts a peak anomaly near 3.6°C by the end of 2026, above the peaks reached during the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino events. WMO classifies the event as ‘very strong’, its top category, which requires an anomaly above 2°C.[1], [2]
Persistence forecast holds near certainty into next year
Phys.org reported that subsurface water in parts of the equatorial Pacific ran more than 8°C above average between July and early August, and that the warm anomaly is on course to peak at the end of 2026 and hold into 2027. WMO puts the event's persistence through February at near certainty, and the agency cautions that peak strength does not translate directly into severity of impact, since different regions feel the effects at different times.[1]
Guterres calls the event 'supersized' as UN warns of extreme-weather risk
Al Jazeera reported that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the event ‘being supersized before our eyes’ and said sea surface temperatures are rising as the planet moves further into the danger zone of extreme weather. The outlet noted the naturally occurring Pacific warming pattern is distinct from climate change but is expected to amplify a planet already warming from fossil-fuel emissions, and that the powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record, a mark Saulo said should not be a surprise to see broken again.[2]
