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Analysis

Most 2021 flood deaths fell outside official hazard maps

Phys.org and MDR Wissen report findings about 224 deaths recorded in the 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium. The reports say that a substantial share of deaths occurred where official extreme-flood hazard maps did not mark a risk. Together, they make visible where risk information did not reach people.

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On an ivory relief map, a blue river overflows as translucent hazard bands stop on the left, leaving an irregular cluster of flooded homes outside the mapped area.

Reports cover 224 deaths

Phys.org and MDR Wissen published findings concerning 224 deaths recorded in the July 2021 floods in Germany and Belgium. The reports cover North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Belgium's Walloon Region. Their shared news value lies in how closely the death locations coincided with places that official extreme-flood hazard maps marked as risky.[1], [2]

The maps lagged behind the death locations

Phys.org reports that about half of fatality sites in North Rhine-Westphalia and about three quarters in Rhineland-Palatinate lay outside mapped zones. MDR Wissen reports that, across the three regions, 58 per cent of deaths occurred where no official hazard map marked a risk. Both reports point to the same gap.[1], [2]

Places where risk was not visible

The result reported in both stories is that a boundary on an official map cannot by itself be an evacuation plan. Phys.org also reports that 72 per cent of victims were over 60. For future flood preparation, these findings offer a data point: attention must extend beyond drawn hazard zones to the places where people live and move.[1]

References

  1. News sourcePhys.orgNorth Rhine-Westphalia's flood maps missed half the places where people died in 2021↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceMDR WissenFifty-eight per cent of 2021 flood deaths lay outside mapped hazard areas↩1↩2