Lowell’s turn keeps Kauai outside the core track but inside the wind and rain risk
Lowell is turning west-northwest, with its centre forecast to pass west of Hawaii’s main islands Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 260 kilometres from the centre, however, and may reach Kauai late Monday. Forecast rainfall on Kauai and Hawaii island is 76–152 millimetres, with local totals potentially exceeding 254 millimetres.
Science··Midday
The turn began as intensity eased
Lowell began turning west-northwest at 21.00 UTC on September 5, carrying sustained winds of 230 km/h as a Category 4 hurricane. Earlier hurricane-hunter observations had shown central pressure rising and winds weakening. That change coincided with Lowell returning to Category 4 about six hours after briefly regaining Category 5 strength overnight. Despite the reduction, the storm was expected to retain substantial strength as it approached Hawaii’s western islands.[1], [2]
Coastal effects can extend beyond the centre track
The forecast takes the hurricane’s centre west of Hawaii’s main islands Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 260 kilometres from the centre, so an offshore core does not remove the possibility of effects on Kauai. Tropical storm conditions may reach the island late Monday. Swells from Lowell were already affecting Kauai’s southern shores as a high surf advisory continued through Sunday, while Hurricane Karina was also raising surf along eastern exposures.[1], [3]
The rainfall forecast defines a broad risk zone
Forecast rainfall on Kauai and Hawaii island is 76–152 millimetres, with local totals potentially exceeding 254 millimetres. These are forecasts rather than observed totals, and they define the potential for flash floods and mudslides. Uncertainty also remains over where and how sharply Lowell will turn north. No coastal hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning was in force when the advisory was issued, though watches were considered likely later that day for Kauai and parts of the Papahanaumokuakea marine monument.[1], [2]
