A Climate Impact Lab report projects 239,000 additional heat deaths from September 2026 through February 2027, and 451,000 from June 2026 through February 2027. New Scientist, on 23 September, reports that split as about 240,000 in the forecast window and about 450,000 once earlier summer deaths are added. It does not place all 450,000 in the next 6 months.
The Climate Impact Lab report projects 239,000 additional heat deaths from September 2026 through February 2027, measured against the 1996–2025 average. The same method, run from June 2026 through February 2027, sums to 451,000. New Scientist reports the forecast slice as about 240,000 and the larger total, once deaths already estimated since June are included, as about 450,000. The magazine's 23 September article keeps those windows apart.[1], [2]
The lab report joins 24,378 regions to an ECMWF forecast. Of the September-to-February deaths, it assigns 66,800 to the Sahel, including 31,400 in Nigeria, and 15,800 to India. Those regional figures are the report's. New Scientist describes the global split between the forecast months and the earlier summer. It does not replace the regional table.[1], [2]
New Scientist's about 450,000 is the June-through-February sum, not a forecast that all of those deaths fall in the next 6 months. The lab's matching figure is 451,000 for June 2026 through February 2027. The September-through-February projection remains 239,000 in the report and about 240,000 in the magazine. A headline that puts 450,000 entirely in the coming half year is a different framing, and that framing stays out of this account.[2], [1]
