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Analysis

Arctic sea ice ties for the 10th-lowest minimum, at 4.60 million square kilometres

The National Snow and Ice Data Center puts the 2026 Arctic minimum at 4.60 million square kilometres on 12 September, using a five-day average. The extent ties 2008, 2010 and 2025 for the 10th-lowest mark in the satellite record, and the last 20 years are the 20 lowest minima. NASA Science reported that Arctic sea ice reached its 2026 annual minimum. A late storm could still compact thin ice and push the extent lower. Antarctica's 14 September maximum is still provisional.

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Bright September pack ice broken into irregular floes and melt pools, with a small ship on the horizon.

The minimum ties three earlier years at 4.60 million square kilometres

The National Snow and Ice Data Center's 23 September analysis, using a five-day average, puts the 2026 Arctic minimum at 4.60 million square kilometres on 12 September. That extent ties 2008, 2010 and 2025 for the 10th-lowest mark in the satellite measurements. NASA Science reported that Arctic sea ice reached its 2026 annual minimum extent. The NASA headline confirms the season turned. It does not restate the 4.60 million figure or the three-year tie. Those stay with NSIDC. The last 20 years, from 2007 through 2026, are the 20 lowest minima in the satellite measurements, the center says. The rank is a tie for tenth, not a new record low.[1], [2]

Thin ice means a later storm could still lower the extent

NSIDC notes that patches of low-concentration ice remain, so a late storm could still compact the cover and push the extent lower. The 12 September date is the analysis date, not a promise that the ice will only grow from here. NASA's report of an annual minimum leaves that caveat in place and adds no storm track. The physical point in the NSIDC note is concentration, not just area. Ice that is spread thin can be packed by wind into a smaller extent without any new freeze or melt. Until that either happens or the season plainly turns up, the tenth-place tie is the published minimum, with a stated way it could still slip.[1], [2]

The Antarctic maximum on 14 September is still unmarked as final

For Antarctica, NSIDC marks 14 September as a provisional maximum of 17.59 million square kilometres and counts it as the third-lowest if that date stands. Large swings near the seasonal maximum are ordinary, so the date is not locked. NASA's Arctic headline does not speak for that southern figure. The two hemispheres are in the same 23 September NSIDC analysis and they are not the same result: a northern minimum that ties for tenth, and a southern maximum that is still provisional and would rank third-lowest only if 14 September holds. The 20-year northern list is the longer context. Every minimum since 2007 sits in the lowest 20. This September joins that list. It does not rewrite it.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceNational Snow and Ice Data CenterArctic sea ice minimum ties for the 10th lowest↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceNASAArctic sea ice reaches its 2026 annual minimum extent↩1↩2↩3