Wilkes Basin review finds a major blind spot in Antarctic ice forecasts
A new review of East Antarctica’s Wilkes Subglacial Basin finds that a region holding enough ice to raise global sea level by three to four metres remains poorly measured. Researchers report evidence of past retreat and changes along coastal ice, while the temperature threshold and future pace remain uncertain. They call for a coordinated international programme to map the seafloor, ice edge and inland basin.
Science··Evening
A vast basin remains poorly measured
An international review published on 30 September identifies major gaps in observations of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica. The region lies partly below sea level and contains enough ice to raise the global mean sea level by three to four metres if all of it were lost. Researchers combined geological records, ocean data, satellite observations and ice-sheet models to assess what is known. Their conclusion is a warning about uncertainty in a potentially consequential region, not a finding that the entire basin is collapsing now. The Australian Antarctic Program Partnership called for an international campaign, while SBS spoke to lead researcher Matt King about what measurements are missing.[1], [2]
Coastal changes do not set a timetable
The review draws on marine sediments and models suggesting that substantial retreat may have occurred during ancient warm periods. Present observations show thinning and collapse of some ice shelves around the basin. Yet neither the temperature threshold for widespread retreat nor the speed of a future response has been established. The basin’s marine-based geometry means warmer water can reach parts of the ice edge, but measurements near the coast and inland are sparse. King told SBS that no research ship has come close enough to the front of Cook Glacier to map the nearby seafloor directly. Without those observations, models yield widely varying timelines.[1], [2]
Researchers seek a shared field campaign
The review team proposes a coordinated programme spanning seabed mapping, measurements at the ice margin and observations farther inland. Comparing those measurements with ice-sheet models would narrow the range of possible future changes. The Australian Antarctic Program Partnership says the programme needs countries to work together over years; its release represents the researchers’ own call for support. SBS separately reports their concern that limited field access has left a large area of Australian Antarctic territory poorly understood. Meltwater from a large retreat could affect ocean circulation and marine ecosystems, but the scale and timing of those possible effects remain open questions tied to the same missing measurements.[1], [2]
