In an October 12 assessment, NASA dated Antarctica’s likely sea-ice peak to September 14 and estimated its extent at 17.59 million square kilometres. The winter maximum ranks third from the bottom of the satellite observations. September is the measurement date and October the report date; strong year-to-year variation complicates interpretation of the recent run of low extents.
NASA Earth Observatory released its account on October 12, dating the likely 2026 Antarctic ice peak to September 14. The estimated area was 17.59 million square kilometres, calculated with the US-based National Snow and Ice Data Center. That ranks as the third-lowest annual peak since satellite observations began. Antarctic sea ice generally finishes expanding around September, near the end of Southern Hemisphere winter.[1]
The extent calculation includes water areas whose surface is at least 15 percent ice covered. Satellites measure naturally emitted microwave energy; ice emits more than open water, and microwaves can pass through clouds, permitting regular observations in cloudy conditions. The satellite observation series began with NASA’s Nimbus-7 satellite in late 1978 and later incorporated observations from other satellite programmes.[1]
NASA describes a string of winter records in 2012–2014. That upward run ended in 2015, and substantial losses followed from 2016; despite small rebounds, coverage has mostly stayed below normal. The record-low summer minimum and record-low winter peak both date to 2023. Scientists continue monitoring whether the recent decline reflects a long-term change or statistical fluctuation.[1]
