Wind and solar shortage risks shift with the level of warming
Simultaneous weakness in wind and sunshine may persist for longer or recur more often in some regions under greater warming. Climate-model projections show uneven geographical changes, with historical patterns offering an incomplete guide to future risk. The peer-reviewed findings concern the availability of energy resources; electricity reliability also depends on how grids are built and operated.
Science··Morning
Joint shortages change the planning risk
Climate models examined combined shortages of wind and sunshine in a peer-reviewed study published on October 29. Such episodes may last longer or recur more often in some regions under greater warming. The term renewable energy drought describes the joint scarcity of energy resources, rather than a rain deficit. Geographical differences are substantial: regional changes can point in different directions, and historical hotspots do not exactly coincide with the areas facing the greatest projected increases.[1]
Models compare several warming levels
Multiple climate models supplied projections for warming of 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees and 3 degrees. A statistical method models dependence between solar and wind conditions, preserving their relationship when estimating combined deficits. Individual days of weak resources were evaluated separately from events persisting for several days. These timescales matter for storage and the flexibility required to handle an extended shortfall, rather than a brief fluctuation.[1]
Incoming solar radiation showed a strong statistical association with increasing shortfalls; wind-related effects were more variable across locations. The relationships leave physical processes requiring further investigation. Electricity service also depends on the installed generating fleet, storage, transmission, trade and demand. Those system choices mediate resource risk, so the projections do not establish unavoidable outages for a particular country.[1]
