Solar, wind and electric vehicles have curbed the increase in fossil carbon dioxide emissions, a peer-reviewed analysis finds. Annual growth averaged 0.8% during 2019–2025, against an estimated 1.9% without further uptake of those technologies. Scenarios extending to 2028 distinguish a steady pace of additions from accelerating deployment, while rising demand and slow vehicle replacement shape the outcome.
New wind and solar generation, together with growing use of electric cars, helped hold the annual increase in fossil carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 0.8% between 2019 and 2025. A peer-reviewed energy analysis puts growth at 1.9% in a comparison without further expansion of those technologies. The calculation contrasts the energy actually supplied with a hypothetical balance relying more heavily on fossil fuels.[1], [2]
The estimated contribution of solar and wind reached 4.1 gigatonnes of avoided carbon dioxide in 2025, up from 0.28 gigatonnes in 2010. The corresponding estimate for 2026 is 4.6 gigatonnes. Electric vehicles accounted for 0.19 gigatonnes in 2025 and an estimated 0.24 gigatonnes in 2026. The power-sector calculation assumes that renewable electricity replaces mainly coal generation and, to a lesser extent, gas.[1]
Scenarios running to 2028 compare annual clean-energy additions frozen at their 2026 level with continued acceleration. Growing demand uses part of the extra supply, while replacing the vehicle fleet takes longer than changing new-car sales. The model uses an average retirement age of 15 years. Weather, economic activity and fuel prices also influence emissions, and the scenario range combines assumptions rather than assigning probabilities to a peak date.[1]
