The Sahel is the denominator for 239,000 extra heat deaths

Where the denominator piles up

Climate Impact Lab writes 239,000 extra heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 against the 1996-2025 average. The range is 11,000. The calculation applies a temperature-mortality relationship in 24,378 regions to the ECMWF seasonal forecast. This is a projection, not a completed count.^[1]

31,400 of the 66,800 deaths sit on the Nigeria line, inside the Sahel total. The India line is 15,800. Where access to cooling is thin, the denominator thickens there.^[1]

The detail is not yet in a journal

The June 2026 to February 2027 total is 451,000, and the 239,000 forecast window sits inside it. The detail of the calculation is not yet in a journal paper. The range of 11,000 can narrow if the ECMWF forecast cools or if local cooling spreads.^[1]