Credit flows and earnings tables measure the same quarter differently
Federal Reserve credit releases showed different speeds in business and consumer borrowing as FactSet reported a strong earnings season. Vistra's results distinguish company-level figures from the index aggregate.
Economics & Markets··Evening
Bank credit and consumer credit track different scopes
The Federal Reserve's H.8 release put bank credit at 19,753.4 billion dollars in the week ended July 29 and loans and leases at 13,918.3 billion dollars. Bank credit grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.3 per cent in the second quarter, while loans and leases grew 7.9 per cent. Growth of 14.2 per cent in commercial and industrial loans was faster than the 2.1 per cent increase in real estate loans. The G.19 release offered a different view of household borrowing. Total consumer credit outstanding reached 5,166.9 billion dollars in June and grew at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in the second quarter. Revolving credit, mostly credit card debt, rose 3.9 per cent, while nonrevolving credit covering vehicle and student loans increased 2.1 per cent. The two official releases show borrowing moving at different speeds. H.8 measures categories and weekly levels on bank balance sheets; G.19 measures the stock and components of consumer credit. Because their scopes differ, the rates are not two calculations of the same total.[1], [2]
FactSet reported a strong earnings season across the index
FactSet's August 7 update calculated blended second-quarter earnings growth of 50.4 per cent for S&P 500 companies. The rate had been 47.4 per cent one week earlier and 23.1 per cent at the end of the quarter. Of reporting companies, 86 per cent beat earnings-per-share estimates, while reported earnings came in 29.2 per cent above estimates. On revenue, 76 per cent beat expectations and aggregate revenue was 3.2 per cent above estimates. These measures combine results from companies that have reported with estimates for those yet to report. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio was 20.0, slightly above its five-year average of 19.9 and below the 20.4 recorded on June 30. FactSet said analysts expected earnings growth of 30.0 per cent for all of 2026. The figures therefore mix realized results with estimates. The 50.4 per cent rate does not describe identical growth at every company; it is FactSet's blended measure from the results and estimates available on that date.[3]
Vistra shows the separate company-level result
Vistra's company release provides a closer view of one business inside the index aggregate. The company reported second-quarter net income of 305 million dollars, adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of 1,767 million dollars and operating revenue of 4,017 million dollars. An unrealized loss of 472 million dollars on derivative positions contributed to the difference between net income and the adjusted operating measure. Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of 6.8 billion dollars to 7.6 billion dollars for adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations and 3.925 billion dollars to 4.725 billion dollars for adjusted free cash flow before growth. FactSet combines results and estimates across many S&P 500 companies; Vistra's release presents one company's revenue, profit measures, derivative loss and guidance. Vistra's figures cannot represent the index. They are a separate company result showing that several line items can move together beneath an aggregate. The Federal Reserve releases measure credit stocks and growth rates, while earnings reports measure company results and estimates. The four sources address the same quarter through different scopes and do not establish a causal path between credit and profits.[4], [3], [1], [2]
