Shipping detours reshape freight bills and the cargo moving through them
Maersk is testing a long-abandoned route, an Iranian trade body counts the blockade’s annual freight cost and India’s coal mix shifts toward steel, exposing how disruption changes cargo economics.
Economics & Markets··Morning
A thousand-day detour still sets the bill
Carriers have added roughly two weeks each way between Asia and Europe since Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader on 19 November 2023, and freight rates remain 25 per cent to 40 per cent above pre-crisis levels. The Red Sea corridor normally carries nearly 15 per cent of maritime trade. The longer route costs an extra 3 million to 4 million dollars a voyage in fuel and operations, and war-risk premiums have risen by nearly 500,000 dollars a voyage, according to industry sources. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, said military action can intercept missiles but cannot restore commercial confidence, and that small Indian exporters carry the heaviest cost through freight, insurance and working capital. At the worst points, rates on some India-Europe and India-US routes rose by 200 per cent to 400 per cent. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have restarted some services, though carriers remain cautious. As the detour reaches a thousand days and Maersk tests the route again, the gap between security measures and commercial confidence remains open.[1]
A blockade priced in containers
Majidreza Hariri, who heads the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, said the consequences of the naval blockade outweigh those of the war itself and warned against trying to evade it. He put the cost of moving a container between Iran and China at 3,000 dollars by sea against 12,000 dollars over land routes that avoid the blockade, and with about 2 million containers a year normally passing through southern ports he estimated roughly 18 billion dollars of extra transport cost annually. He said hardship now exceeds what the country faced during the 40-day fighting earlier in 2026, and cautioned against governing as though the blockade can be worked around. Iranian officials have voiced concern about currency devaluation, inflation and unrest of the kind seen in January. The millions added per voyage on the Red Sea detour and this annual freight bill of 18 billion dollars belong to the same pricing family: one lengthens the ship’s path, the other re-prices the port and the overland alternative.[2]
Coal cargo tilts toward steel
India’s total coal imports were roughly flat in fiscal 2026 at 244.2 million tonnes, but a Multi Commodity Exchange of India report shows metallurgical grades up 10.4 per cent while thermal coal fell 5.5 per cent. Coking coal imports rose 12.4 per cent to 63.7 million tonnes from 56.6 million tonnes, and pulverised coal injection grades rose 6.2 per cent to 20.9 million tonnes, taking metallurgical imports to 84.5 million tonnes from 76.3 million tonnes. Non-coking imports fell to 159.7 million tonnes from 169 million tonnes as domestic supply improved. The report says incremental demand now sits in metallurgical grades, where domestic supply cannot match quality requirements, making import volumes more sensitive to steel output than to electricity demand. Russian shipments rose 13.1 per cent to 32 million tonnes and Australian shipments rose 9.3 per cent to 43 million tonnes. While route detours and blockades inflate the freight bill, India’s import mix shows that the cargo itself is shifting: more steel-grade coal and less thermal coal pass the same port gates.[3], [1], [2]
