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Analysis

Japan's 30-year bond auction clears at 4.100 per cent inside a continuing government debt sell-off

The Ministry of Finance sold 30-year Japanese government bonds on 3 September. The lowest accepted price of 98.65 yen per 100 yen of face value corresponds to a yield of 4.100 per cent. Competitive bids reached 1,728.1 billion yen against 456.2 billion yen accepted. The sale falls inside a week in which government debt weakened in Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom as well as the United States.

Economics & Markets··Midday
A stone-and-glass ministry building across a tree-lined Tokyo avenue, with Japan's flag at the entrance, a courier on the steps, office workers and two vehicles.

A 4.100 per cent yield at the bottom of the book

The Ministry of Finance sold 30-year Japanese government bonds at an auction on 3 September 2026. The lowest accepted price was 98.65 yen per 100 yen of face value, a yield of 4.100 per cent, and the weighted average accepted price was 98.93 yen, a yield of 4.079 per cent. Competitive bids came to 1,728.1 billion yen and the ministry accepted 456.2 billion yen of them. A further 143.4 billion yen was taken up in the non-price competitive auction reserved for special participants.[1]

A 2.1 basis point gap at the bottom of the book

The security is the 91st issue of the 30-year bond, carries a 4.0 per cent coupon, is issued on 4 September 2026 and matures on 20 June 2056. The 0.28 yen gap between the lowest accepted price and the average means the yield paid at the bottom of the book sat 2.1 basis points above the average. The auction took place inside a sell-off that weakened government debt in Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom over the past week.[1], [2]

The US 10-year yield at 4.818 per cent

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose to an intraday high of 4.818 per cent on Wednesday, the highest since November 2023, before falling back to around 4.8 per cent in the early afternoon. Michael Metcalfe of State Street said higher energy prices were pushing traders to position for Federal Reserve rate increases, and that the argument had become entangled with longer-term concerns about the fiscal path. Angelo Kourkafas of Edward Jones described rising government bond yields as the main problem for markets against a background of solid growth, while Naka Matsuzawa of Nomura Securities pointed to technology companies paying comparatively high rates on new debt. Each of those readings is a market participant's interpretation rather than a measured cause.[2]

References

  1. News sourceMinistry of Finance JapanJapan's 30-year bond auction clears at a 4.100 per cent yield↩1↩2
  2. News sourceFox BusinessUS 10-year Treasury yield touches 4.818 per cent, the highest since November 2023↩1↩2