Canada's CPI held at 3.0 percent in August, matching July
Statistics Canada said consumer prices rose 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July. The index fell 0.1 percent month over month, not seasonally adjusted, and rose 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Gasoline was up 22.8 percent year over year. RBC Economics says food eased to 2.8 percent and the Bank of Canada's trim and median measures stayed near 2 percent.
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Headline 3.0, gasoline still the spike
Statistics Canada said CPI rose 3.0 percent year over year in August, matching July. The index fell 0.1 percent month over month, not seasonally adjusted, and rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted. Excluding gasoline, the 12-month change was 2.4 percent. Gasoline prices rose 22.8 percent year over year after 25.7 percent in July. Food prices rose 2.8 percent and, for the first time since July 2024, ran below the all-items CPI. Shelter rose 1.5 percent and transportation 7.5 percent. Travel tours rose 26.1 percent year over year; Statistics Canada tied the faster pace to a base-year effect and fuel surcharges on jet fuel.[1]
Trim and median near the 2 percent target
RBC Economics says energy prices were 15.4 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with 16.6 percent in July, and that gasoline fell 0.9 percent from July while remaining about 23 percent above year-ago levels. CPI excluding food and energy was 2.1 percent. The Bank of Canada's CPI-trim was 1.9 percent and CPI-median 2.0 percent. Grocery price growth lagged overall inflation for the first time in over two years. Measures of inflation breadth slipped: the share of basket components growing faster than 3 percent over three months fell to 25.9 percent from 30.6 percent.[2]
A bank forecast is not a rate decision
RBC's base case is that the Bank of Canada holds rates through the rest of 2026 before raising them in 2027 as the economy strengthens; the bank says risks tilt toward an earlier hike if elevated energy prices persist. Statistics Canada publishes the price index, not that rate path. The two accounts agree on a 3.0 percent August headline and on food at 2.8 percent.[2], [1]
