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Analysis

Europe is 510,000 barrels a day short of jet in the fourth quarter

Energy Aspects prints Europe 510,000 barrels a day short of jet for October-December, on a Reuters wire, after Iranian fighting cut about half of what Europe had been importing. Kpler has September South Korea flows at 129,000 barrels a day.

Economics & Markets··Morning
Bright editorial illustration of three sparse white fuel tanks beside a grey North Sea dock with one empty berth.

A consultant's Q4 hole

Iranian fighting interrupted roughly half the jet Europe had been buying abroad. Extra barrels have been coming from Canada, Nigeria and the United States. Energy Aspects now prints Europe 510,000 barrels a day short for October-December. On the same wire the United States is 18,000 barrels a day long and Asia-Pacific is 419,000 barrels a day long. Those three prints are consultant estimates.[1]

Korea barrels and a thin hub

Kpler, in that file, has South Korean barrels into Europe this September running at 129,000 a day, the strongest clip since October 2022. Independent tanks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp printed a seven-year trough in the week ending 10 September. Gasoil in Europe made a record this week. James Noel-Beswick at Sparta Commodities said the Asia-Europe spread now pays to send barrels west.[1]

Estimates, not quotas

All three Energy Aspects figures are consultant estimates, not a government quota or a declared supply commitment. The 18,000 barrels a day the United States is long and the 419,000 Asia-Pacific is long sit at the other end of the same arithmetic: if Europe's gap closes from another region's surplus, the barrels have to move west. The Korean flow running at its strongest clip since October 2022 points the same way.[1]

References

  1. News sourceReutersEnergy Aspects sees a 510,000 barrel-a-day European jet-fuel gap in the fourth quarter↩1↩2↩3