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Analysis

Collins linked her rate-hike support to inflation and energy risks

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said persistent inflation and energy-price pressure drove her support for last week's quarter-point rate increase, which took the policy rate to about 3.9 per cent. Collins pencilled in another increase this year and said she expected no rate change next year; she does not vote this year.

Economics & Markets··Morning
In a bright policy room, an empty decision chair stands behind a pale wood table with an amber-lit glass inlay and a metal rate lever at its first detent, with further travel still open.

Two pressures behind the increase

Boston Fed President Susan Collins cited persistent inflation and pressure from energy prices when explaining her support for last week's quarter-point rate increase. The decision lifted the policy rate to about 3.9 per cent. Associated Press and FXStreet report that Collins viewed renewed Middle East hostilities as a factor that could create additional price pressure through energy.[1], [2]

Inflation progress fell short

Collins said she had not seen the inflation progress she hoped for and saw a greater chance that price growth could remain persistent. She also said the employment outlook had improved. Persistent inflation and a stronger employment outlook appeared in her account as two distinct considerations behind last week's rate decision. Energy prices also featured as an additional pressure in the inflation outlook.[1], [2]

One more increase, then a pause

Collins said she had pencilled in one more rate increase this year and expected no change next year. That is one policymaker's preferred path, not a Federal Open Market Committee decision. Collins does not vote on the Committee this year. Her comments still show the focus of the internal debate: whether energy pressure will interrupt the slowing of inflation is being watched closely.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceAssociated PressFed official Collins backed lifting the policy rate to 3.9 per cent↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceFXStreetCollins linked her rate-hike support to inflation and energy risks↩1↩2↩3