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Analysis

Hungary holds its base rate at 5.50 percent and sets a 2.5 percent target

The Hungarian central bank said the Monetary Council held the base rate at 5.50 percent and set the inflation target at 2.5 percent from 1 January 2028. August inflation was 1.3 percent and core inflation was 2 percent. Daily News Hungary reports the same hold at 5.50 percent and the cut in the medium-term target from 3 percent to 2.5 percent from 2028.

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A level brass balance scale sits on a bright council table beside the Hungarian flag, with three officials seated facing the windows.

The rate that did not move

The Magyar Nemzeti Bank said the Monetary Council held the base rate at 5.50 percent. From 23 September the overnight deposit rate is 4.50 percent and the overnight collateralised lending rate is 6.50 percent, both unchanged. Daily News Hungary reports the same decision in its own words: the Council left the 5.50 percent base rate unchanged, and both ends of the interest-rate corridor also remained unchanged.[1], [2]

The target that did move

The central bank set the inflation target at 2.5 percent from 1 January 2028. August inflation was 1.3 percent and core inflation was 2 percent. Daily News Hungary reports that the medium-term target was lowered from 3 percent to 2.5 percent from 2028, and reads the step as one that could support euro adoption by moving domestic policy closer to euro-area conditions. The euro reading is the newspaper's. The target change is in both accounts.[1], [2]

The projection the bank attached

The central bank's September projection puts GDP growth at 1.8 percent in 2026, 2.9 percent in 2027 and 2.8 percent in 2028, after 1.7 percent growth in the second quarter of 2026. The same projection puts the rate of price increases at 1.8 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, and has inflation at the 2.5 percent target by the end of the policy horizon. The bank wrote that current interest-rate conditions are necessary to reach the target in a sustainable way. Those paths are the bank's, not the newspaper's.[1]

References

  1. News sourceMagyar Nemzeti BankHungary's central bank holds its base rate at 5.50 percent↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceDaily News HungaryHungary's central bank holds the base rate and lowers the inflation target↩1↩2