The 10-year US yield hit 5.104 per cent, a July 2007 level
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 13 basis points to 5.104 per cent, last seen in July 2007 and the biggest one-day rise since 7 April 2025. The 2-year and 30-year rose too. A five-year auction and hotter S&P Global activity readings landed the same day, and Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely. The Financial Times called the jump the sharpest since the liberation-day tariff shock.
Economics & Markets··Morning
The 10-year yield returned to a July 2007 print
The 10-year yield rose more than 13 basis points to 5.104 per cent. The 2-year rose more than 11 basis points to 4.889 per cent, and the 30-year rose more than 9 basis points to 5.398 per cent. CNBC says it was the biggest one-day rise since 7 April 2025, when the yield surged 16.6 basis points. The Financial Times reported the same session as US Treasury yields soaring the most since the liberation-day tariffs shook markets. The two outlets are describing one move: a long-bond jump large enough to be compared with the April 2025 shock, with the 10-year back at a July 2007 level. The FT headline does not repeat the three coupons. Those figures stay with CNBC.[1], [2]
A hot PMI pair and a costly five-year auction landed together
CNBC reports that S&P Global's services PMI rose to 58.7 in September from 56.5, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7. A five-year note auction cleared at 5.033 per cent, against a six-auction average of 4.186 per cent. Indirect bidders took 54 per cent of the sale, against a 65 per cent average. The Financial Times places that same session against the liberation-day tariff shock, the last yield jump of this size. The auction arithmetic stays with CNBC: indirect buyers took a smaller share, at a yield far above the recent average.[1], [2]
Barr's base case now includes another adjustment
Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely to be needed in his base case so inflation comes down to target. CME FedWatch put the chance of an October increase at 66.4 per cent, from 55 per cent a day earlier. The Federal Reserve raised the funds rate last week by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent. That prior step is the antecedent: the yield jump did not arrive in a hold. It arrived a week after a hike, with a governor saying the base case still needs more, and with the futures market marking October higher. Barr's words are in the CNBC account. The Financial Times records the yield move those remarks sat on.[1], [2]
