The OECD lifts Türkiye's 2026 inflation forecast to 31.5 per cent and cuts growth
The OECD raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast for Türkiye to 31.5 per cent from 28.4 per cent in June, and cut 2026 growth to 2.7 per cent from 3.1 per cent. CNN Türk reports the same 31.5 per cent inflation and 2.7 per cent growth, with 2027 inflation at 24.7 per cent and growth at 3.6 per cent. The global growth forecast it cites is 2.9 per cent.
Economics & Markets··Evening
Inflation up, growth down
In its interim outlook the OECD raised Türkiye's 2026 headline inflation forecast to 31.5 per cent from 28.4 per cent in June, and the 2027 forecast to 24.7 per cent from 18.3 per cent. The growth forecast was cut to 2.7 per cent from 3.1 per cent for 2026 and to 3.6 per cent from 3.8 per cent for 2027. CNN Türk reports 2026 growth of 2.7 per cent and 2027 growth of 3.6 per cent, inflation of 31.5 per cent in 2026 and 24.7 per cent in 2027, and says those forecasts were revised down from June by 0.4 points for 2026 and 0.2 points for 2027. It also says the OECD expects the world economy to grow 2.9 per cent in the same period.[1], [2]
The official path beside the OECD path
August inflation stood at 31.5 per cent, the same figure the OECD now uses for the whole of 2026. Under the new Medium-Term Program, authorities project 28.4 per cent at the end of this year, 21 per cent in 2027, 13.5 per cent in 2028 and 9 per cent in 2029. The organisation said energy and fertiliser costs remain a headwind and that it still looks for inflation to keep moderating into 2027. That moderating view is the 24.7 per cent forecast for 2027, which is lower than 31.5 per cent and still far above the program's 21 per cent for the same year. CNN Türk's report stays with the OECD figures and the 2.9 per cent global growth call; it does not restate the Medium-Term Program.[1]
How far the rate has already fallen
Daily Sabah noted the drop from 85.5 per cent in late 2022 and about 70 per cent in May 2024. The new OECD number for 2026, 31.5 per cent, matches the August reading and replaces a June forecast of 28.4 per cent. CNN Türk's 0.4 point and 0.2 point downward revisions line up with the growth cuts, from 3.1 per cent to 2.7 per cent and from 3.8 per cent to 3.6 per cent, not with the inflation increases. A reader who takes only the inflation line will miss that growth was marked down while the price forecast was marked up.[1], [2]
