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AMRO holds its 2026 ASEAN+3 growth forecast at 4.1 per cent as AI exports support the region

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office kept its 2026 regional growth forecast at 4.1 per cent and raised its 2027 projection by 0.1 percentage point to the same rate, pointing to AI-related exports and investment. Its October update also lifted South Korea’s 2026 forecast to 3.3 per cent from 3.1 per cent. AMRO listed renewed energy disruption, a persistent El Niño and a rapid repricing of AI assets among the risks that could weaken the outlook.

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Regional growth forecast stays at 4.1 per cent

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, or AMRO, kept its regional growth forecast for 2026 at 4.1 per cent in its October update. The organization monitors economies in Southeast Asia alongside China, Japan and South Korea. It also projected 4.1 per cent growth for 2027, raising that forecast by 0.1 percentage point from July. AMRO linked growth support to AI-related exports and investment. Its chief economist Dong He said the AI investment cycle was supporting a wider range of activities, while domestic demand remained uneven.[1]

AMRO’s regional inflation projections were 1.6 per cent for 2026 and 1.7 per cent for 2027. The first remained unchanged; the second increased by 0.1 percentage point. Higher energy costs and food-price pressure associated with El Niño contributed to the revision. Disruptions to energy supplies and industrial inputs had been less severe than feared, but higher logistics and energy bills continued to weigh on household purchasing power and business costs.[1]

South Korea’s growth estimate rises to 3.3 per cent

The same October outlook raised South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast from 3.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent and its 2027 projection from 2.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent. AMRO did not separately give the reasons for the Korean growth revision in the announcement cited by Yonhap. Its Korean consumer-inflation forecast rose from 2.6 per cent to 2.7 per cent for 2026, while the 2027 figure fell from 2.4 per cent to 2.3 per cent.[2]

AI demand and energy disruption remain regional risks

AMRO warned that weaker AI demand could reduce regional exports and investment, while renewed Middle East energy disruption and a persistent El Niño could weaken the outlook. Energy, transport and production costs could add to inflation pressure. A rapid repricing of AI-related assets could also trigger broader market corrections, forced reductions in leveraged investment and tighter credit. The organization assessed most regional external positions and reserves as sound, banks as liquid and profitable, and corporate and household debt ratios as generally declining. Public-debt ratios had broadly stabilized.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceAMROAMRO projects 4.1% ASEAN+3 growth in 2026 and 2027↩1↩2↩3
  2. News sourceYonhapAMRO raises South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%↩1↩2
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