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Analysis

Japan’s Nikkei gains 2 per cent after weaker US hiring cools Fed rate bets

Japanese shares rallied 2 per cent in Monday’s Asian trading after Friday’s US employment report showed only 29,000 jobs added in September and downward revisions to the two months before. CME FedWatch put the chance of an October Federal Reserve rate rise below 20 per cent, against 64 per cent a week earlier, though traders still priced a December increase. Holidays in China, South Korea and parts of Australia thinned trading, and US 10-year Treasury yields stayed above 5.2 per cent.

Economics & Markets··Morning
A man in a navy suit looks from an upper gallery over circular trading infrastructure in a Japanese stock-exchange hall.

Japanese shares lead a thin Asian session

Japan’s Nikkei stock index rose 2 per cent in Monday’s Asian trading after the previous Friday’s US employment figures prompted investors to reduce expectations for an October rate increase. The move followed gains in US shares, where the Nasdaq had closed at a record and semiconductor shares had rallied. Japanese equities advanced alongside the broader regional market, although the benchmarks covered different groups of stocks.[1], [2]

MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities index gained 0.4 per cent, while its broad index excluding Japan advanced 0.9 per cent. China, South Korea and Australia’s New South Wales had market holidays, thinning regional activity. Japan’s Topix gained 0.9 per cent, and on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6 per cent in the early session. Trading in the region therefore continued with several major domestic markets closed. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1 per cent in the Reuters snapshot, while Nasdaq futures were flat.[1], [2]

September hiring changes October rate pricing

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, below every estimate in Bloomberg’s economist survey, and the preceding two months were revised down. Unemployment rose to 4.2 per cent, partly because the workforce expanded. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver assessed the figures as reducing pressure for another immediate Federal Reserve increase. Interactive Brokers economist Jose Torres said the revisions meant jobs had been lost in two of the first nine months, complicating the rate path markets had priced.[1], [2]

December expectations persist as bond yields stay high

CME FedWatch, a tool tracking market-implied US rate probabilities, put an October increase below 20 per cent, against 64 per cent a week earlier. Traders still anticipated a December increase. US 10-year Treasury yields eased to 5.2686 per cent and two-year yields stood at 4.8101 per cent. Government borrowing, new bond issuance and energy costs remained part of the pressure on major debt markets. Auctions of 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries were scheduled for the week, with the Fed’s September meeting minutes due Wednesday.[1], [2]

References

  1. News sourceThe Business TimesJapanese shares rise as October Fed hike bets ease↩1↩2↩3↩4
  2. News sourceReutersJapan’s Nikkei gains 2% in holiday-thinned Asian trading↩1↩2↩3↩4