Eigen RadarEconomics
Analysis

UK vacancies fall below 700,000 as small firms cut hiring

UK job vacancies fell to 691,000 in July–September, their lowest level in more than five years, as smaller businesses cited labour costs when scaling back recruitment. Unemployment nevertheless declined to 4.7 per cent in the three months to August. Regular pay grew 3.7 per cent annually, leaving modest gains after inflation.

Economics & Markets··Evening
A hand holds a tightly rolled paper above empty clear notice holders at a workshop entrance with a British flag.

Vacancies reach a five-year low

Britain had an estimated 691,000 job vacancies in July–September, down 21,000 from the preceding three months. The fall took the total to its lowest level in more than five years. Smaller businesses identified labour costs as a reason for reducing recruitment, while construction recorded the largest industry decline.[1], [2]

The quarterly decline was 2.9 per cent; compared with a year earlier, vacancies fell by 37,000, or 5.1 per cent. Employers described a more expensive hiring environment. Businesses expressed concerns about energy bills, National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage alongside the official vacancy figures.[1], [2]

Unemployment falls while payroll employment remains weaker

The Office for National Statistics, Britain’s national statistical agency, estimated unemployment at 4.7 per cent for June–August. Employment among people aged 16–64 was 75.3 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points both from the previous quarter and from a year earlier. Economic inactivity in that age group was 20.9 per cent.[1]

September’s early payroll estimate was 30.3 million employees, an increase of 13,000 over the month but a decrease of 66,000 over the year. This is provisional. Payroll employment during June–August was 92,000 lower annually and 37,000 lower on the quarter. Improved Labour Force Survey responses have not removed short-term volatility.[1]

Pay rises leave modest gains after inflation

Regular earnings excluding bonuses grew 3.7 per cent annually in June–August, as did total pay. Public-sector regular pay rose 6.3 per cent and private-sector pay 3.0 per cent. The timing of public-sector awards affects these annual comparisons, while changes in workforce composition can also alter the average.[1]

After adjustment with consumer inflation including owner-occupiers’ housing costs, regular pay increased 0.6 per cent in real terms and total pay 0.7 per cent. Using the consumer price index excluding that housing component, the gains were 0.8 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively.[1]

Total pay growth eased from 3.9 per cent in the preceding three-month period to its lowest rate since August–October 2020. The provisional September claimant count was higher than both a month and a year earlier. August payroll employment was 1,000 above July.[1]

References

  1. News sourceOffice for National StatisticsUK pay growth slows as vacancies decline↩1↩2↩3↩4↩5↩6↩7
  2. News sourceBBCUK vacancies fall as small firms cut hiring↩1↩2